Predictor Example

Financial Analysis Solutions for Microsoft Excel

PredictorXL > Example

Let's say you have a table with historical stock price data, two technical analysis functions and you would like to get a prediction for tomorrow's Closing price:

Step 1. You click on PredictorXL from the menu in MS Excel

After the launch of the program you will see the form of PredictorXL.

Step 2. Using the mouse button choose the range of numerical data (Inputs) of the table that you want to use and which is influencing on the outputs and choose the range for the Outputs.

Step 3. Set the following parameters:

Learning rate, which is influencing on the speed and quality of training.
Lag - number of predicted values. (If set to 1, then it will predict only tomorrow value, if set to 2 - it will predict for tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.)
Error - error value, when neural net will automatically stop training.
Momentum, which is influencing on the speed and quality of training.

Step 4. Click on New button, click Start Training button and click Show Process button. PredictorXL dialog will transform and will be showing graph of training. Blue line shows real values, red line shows predicted values:

Step 5. When the training will be complete, you will receive notification box. After it, click Predict button and the following dialog will appear :

We have got the following prediction result:

You received the result and you want to know what PredictorXL would predict if you launched it yesterday. So, you need decrease Inputs and Outputs array:

Step 6. Click on New button and click Start Training button:

Step 5. When the training will be complete, you will receive notification box. After it, click Predict button and the following dialog will appear :

And you see, that error is only $0.69 and showed tendency of price movement is correct. So if you would have given an order to broker for the next day (today is 07.06.3002) to Buy 100 shares at Open and Sell 100 shares at Close, then you could gain $117 (or $1.17 per share) during only one trade day!

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